Is history repeating itself in the Golden State, or is it going national? In 1994, Governor Pete Wilson championed Proposition 187, a hardline immigration measure that many credit with permanently alienating Latino voters and “killing” the California GOP. Fast-forward to April 2026, and President Trump’s aggressive second-term immigration crackdown is drawing eerie parallels, with critics theorizing he may be the “new Pete Wilson” for the national Republican party.
A National Approval Freefall
Current polling suggests the administration’s immigration policies are hitting a breaking point with the American public. As of mid-April 2026, Trump’s overall approval rating has tied a second-term low of 38%.
- Immigration Disapproval: Just 39% of Americans approve of his handling of immigration, a record low for this issue.
- ICE Backlash: A significant 58% of voters believe ICE agents have gone “too far” in recent crackdown operations.
- Vulnerability in the Heartland: Trump’s approval has dipped below 50% in 135 GOP-held House and Senate districts, signaling a “broad-based softening” that could jeopardize Republican control of Congress in the 2026 midterms.
The “Kiss of Death” in California?
The stakes are highest in California, where Trump recently endorsed former Fox News host Steve Hilton for governor. While the endorsement helps Hilton consolidate the Republican base, many strategists view it as a “tactically foolish intervention” in a general election in deep-blue California.
- The Hilton vs. Bianco Split: At the recent California Republican Party convention, delegates were split between Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
- The GOP Lockout Risk: Ironically, Trump’s endorsement of Hilton might actually prevent a GOP victory. Strategists argue that by boosting Hilton, Trump has made it less likely that both Hilton and Bianco could finish in the top two of the “jungle” primary. This potentially spares Democrats from a lockout and frees up millions in Democratic campaign funds.
- The “Bianco” Alternative: For California Republicans wary of the “Trump effect,” Sheriff Chad Bianco remains the primary alternative. However, with Trump’s thumb on the scale for Hilton, the party remains deeply divided just weeks before mail-in voting begins for the June 2 primary.
Will the Midterms Flip?
With momentum shifting toward Democrats, forecasts for November increasingly suggest they could seize control of at least one branch of Congress. Much like Pete Wilson’s legacy in California, Trump’s signature issue—once his greatest strength—may now be the very thing that hands the House and Senate back to his opposition.