With less than two months until California’s June 2 primary, the race to replace Governor Gavin Newsom has devolved into one of the most unpredictable gubernatorial contests in decades. Two of the Democratic Party’s leading candidates—Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter—are mired in controversy and faltering momentum, leaving Democratic voters wondering who, if anyone, can rally the party before the GOP seizes the moment.
Trouble at the Top: Swalwell and Porter Stumble
For Eric Swalwell, once seen as a frontrunner, recent allegations of inappropriate behavior with female staffers have thrown his campaign into crisis. Even allies are urging Democrats to take the accusations seriously, with political strategist Bhavik Lathia warning that “there is going to be a lot more coming out soon.” Swalwell’s campaign has forcefully denied the claims, calling them politically motivated smears spread by opponents desperate to weaken the leading Democrat according to pasadenastarnews.com.
While the charges remain unproven, the damage is tangible. Polling shows Swalwell’s favorability slipping among independents—just 12% view him positively, with more than twice that number unfavorable, according to a UC Berkeley–POLITICO survey according to yahoo.com.
Katie Porter, meanwhile, has struggled to regain ground after a series of viral controversies—most notably videos showing her berating staff members. Once a darling of progressive voters, Porter’s campaign has been plagued by questions of temperament and management style. Her once-commanding lead has evaporated; she is now polling in the low double digits, neck and neck with billionaire activist Tom Steyer and well behind GOP frontrunner Steve Hilton according to pressdemocrat.com.
Searching for a Democratic Standard-Bearer
The turmoil leaves Democrats in a precarious position. The sheer number of Democratic candidates—24 in all—risks splitting the vote under California’s “top two” primary system, which advances only the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation. That dynamic has party leaders openly dreading a nightmare scenario in which two Republicans advance to November’s general election according to theintelligencer.com.
If Democrats are forced to look beyond Swalwell and Porter, Tom Steyer appears the most viable alternative. His self-funded, populist campaign has surged into the top tier, buoyed by a massive advertising blitz and growing support among progressive and environmental voters. Steyer’s numbers have climbed steadily in recent weeks, and he now polls nearly level with both Swalwell and Porter according to yahoo.com.
More moderate Democrats, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, have yet to gain traction. Despite backing from Silicon Valley donors and independent expenditure committees, Mahan hovers around 3% in most polls, struggling to build name recognition statewide.
Trump’s Endorsement and the GOP Opportunity
Republicans, meanwhile, smell blood in the water. Former Fox News host Steve Hilton has consolidated much of the GOP vote—recent UC Berkeley polling puts him in first place with about 19% of likely voters, well ahead of his Republican rival, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, at around 11% according to pressdemocrat.com.
But there’s a twist: Donald Trump’s recent endorsement of Hilton may prove a double-edged sword. In deep-blue California, Trump’s 28% approval rating is toxic, and some Republican operatives fear the endorsement could alienate independents or moderate GOP voters who view Hilton’s candidacy as stronger without Trump’s imprimatur according to pasadenastarnews.com.
Still, the Trump endorsement cements Hilton’s status as the GOP frontrunner—and ironically, that might end up helping Democrats by draining support from Bianco. A consolidated Republican vote around Hilton makes it less likely that both conservative candidates will take the top two spots, averting a “Democratic lockout” in November.
Could a Republican Actually Win?
The odds of a Republican winning the governorship remain slim in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Yet under California’s open primary rules, a split Democratic field could still allow a Republican to finish first—or even capture both runoff slots—if Democratic turnout collapses or voters remain fragmented.
Simulations by political data experts have put the odds of an all-Republican runoff as high as 18%, a figure roughly equivalent, as one analyst quipped, to “San Francisco being fogged in during your morning commute” according to pressdemocrat.com. Not impossible—just uncommon.
What’s clear is that the Democratic Party’s internal discord has turned what should have been a foregone conclusion into a genuine fight. As scandals simmer and the GOP unites, California’s deep-blue assumption is looking shallower by the week.
Bottom line: Swalwell and Porter’s troubles have thrown open the Democratic race, giving Steyer a chance to emerge—and Hilton an opening to dominate Republican ranks. Whether Trump’s meddling helps or hurts remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: California’s governor’s race is no longer predictable.