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Who will win in Santa Ana’s Special Election this Tuesday?

Posted on November 3, 2019 by Editor Posted in 2019 Elections, Beatriz Mendoza, Brandon Sisco, Carolyn Torres, Cecilia Aguinaga, Civic Affairs, David Benavides, Elections, Gale Oliver Jr., Gisela Contreras, Jennifer Oliva, Manuel Escamilla, Phil Bacerra, Roman Reyna, Santa Ana, SAUSD 4 Comments

You don’t get a consolation prize when you run for office. You either win or lose. After many weeks of politicking a number of local Santa Ana candidates will discover their fate this Tuesday, Nov. 5, when the combined Santa Ana City Council and SAUSD School Board Special Election finally comes to fruition.

So who will win these seats?

Let’s take a look first at how we arrived at this moment. The City Council seat, in Ward 4, opened up after the incumbent, Roman Reyna, was sued in civil court by the candidate he defeated last November, Phil Bacerra. Reyna it seems moved into Ward 4 but fudged his campaign paperwork. Eventually he was charged by the OCDA and he was indicted and fined a half million dollars! He had to resign from the City Council and promise never to run for local office again.

Bacerra is the leading candidate to replace Reyna. Other challengers include former Santa Ana planner Manny Escamilla, former Planning Commissioner Beatriz Mendoza, business owners Jennifer Oliva and Brandon Sisco, and Bishop Gale Oliver Jr.

Escamilla’s base is the left-wing of the Democratic Party, essentially those who support the likes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. While those voters are fired up they are small in number and given to not voting.

Mendoza used to work for U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez. She has the support of the same people that supported Reyna last year. She is a single mom and the campaign has been very tough on her.

Sisco is an outlier. He does not seem to be spending any money on his campaign. I am not sure why he is even running. But he seems to be having fun in the process.

Bishop Oliver Jr. is getting a lot of support from conservatives in the area. There are a lot of folks walking precincts with him. However he has not run for office before and presumably his name I.D. is low. Perhaps voters will be moved to vote for a minister?

Oliva is getting some help from the local police union, the Santa Ana Police Officers Association. So she has sent out some mail and has signs up. This is her first campaign too. Council Member David Penaloza has endorsed her and she serves him on our Arts Commission.

Bacerra however has a big advantage as he was on the November ballot last year and he remains popular in north Santa Ana. Like Escamilla, he is a college graduate and a planner by trade. He has served on the Planning Commission and he has plenty of contacts, here in Santa Ana and also up in Sacramento. He will benefit from the fact that these types of elections tend to have low turnouts that favor older voters. That’s his base!

If I was a betting man I would bet on Bacerra to pull this one out.

The SAUSD is also holding a Special Election after their former Trustee, Cecilia Iglesias, got elected to the Santa Ana City Council last year. The SAUSD Trustees were unable to figure out who to appoint to replace Iglesias so now we get to vote for a replacement.

The candidates include Iglesias’ longtime friend and ally, Gisela Contreras, former City Councilman David Benavides, Anaheim public schoolteacher Carolyn Torres, and Housing Commissioner/Realtor Cecilia Aguinaga.

Supporters of Bishop Gale Oliver Jr. and Gisela Contreras

The same folks walking for Bishop Oliver Jr. are also walking for Contreras. She is the only candidate who fully supports parental choice in education. This is her first campaign but she has the full endorsement and support of Council Member Cecilia Iglesias, a veteran of many elections.

Benavides was once married to a local schoolteacher but he divorced her a few years ago, when he was running for Mayor of Santa Ana. He heads up a local nonprofit, Kidworks, that is definitely in the education arena however he is what he appears to be – a career politician looking for his next gig.

Torres is cut from the same liberal cloth as Escamilla. You can expect her to promote the teacher’s union, oppose school choice (charter schools) and support new taxes and bond measures.

Aguinaga worked for the SAUSD many years ago. She has been involved in Santa Ana politics and community affairs for a long time. She has run a few times for the SAUSD School Board. This time around the local police union has funded several effective campaign mailers for her. However she is not walking precincts and will depend on the mailers and her existing name I.D.

This race is a tough one to call. Benavides has the highest name I.D. but he is covered in Roman Reyna stink and that will scare off a lot of voters. Torres is too liberal for what is a moderate community but her ballot designation is a good one. She is the only teacher on the ballot. Contreras is working hard but has few funds and is relying on grassroots support. Aguinaga has come close before. Perhaps this time she will finally win?

So who are you voting for?

Ward 4 candidate Manny Escamilla is winning on Facebook but who will win on Nov. 5?

Posted on October 12, 2019 by Editor Posted in 2019 Elections, Beatriz Mendoza, Civic Affairs, Elections, Gale Oliver Jr., Jennifer Oliva, Manuel Escamilla, Phil Bacerra, Politics, Santa Ana 6 Comments

Have you decided who you will vote for in the upcoming Nov. 5 Santa Ana City Council, Ward 4, Special Election?

The race features several candidates with widely varied experiences. Almost all of them have some civic experience as well.

Elections have really changed in Santa Ana, which is a tough town to run in because so many of the newer residents have a tendency to move from city to city. This is a city dominated by Latino residents but Latino voters don’t always bother to vote.

As this is a Special Election I expect the overall voter turnout will be extremely low. Older voters can be expected to vote – particularly those who are worried about the direction the city is going in.

There are several candidates who are basing their campaign on getting young people out to vote, including former Santa Ana planning agency employee Manny Escamilla and Arts Commissioner Jennifer Oliva. But those voters often don’t vote.

Escamilla is also spending a lot of time garnering support from Santa Ana’s older voters, as you can see on his Facebook page. Smart move!

The candidate with the biggest advantage is former Planning Commissioner Phil Bacerra, who lost a close race to Roman Reyna last November. However Reyna quickly got into big trouble because he tried to carpetbag in Ward 4 and he bungled getting an address in the Ward in time. Quite frankly the City Clerk should never have allowed him to get onto the ballot.

Bacerra has several advantages. He has the highest name I.D. in the current race. While he is a Democrat he is popular with the city’s Republican voters. And he has garnered a lot of support in Ward 4 from residents who are mad about perceived over-development in the city.

But how are these candidates doing on Facebook? Oliva’s Facebook page only has 296 followers. Escamilla’s Facebook page has 851 followers. Bacerra’s Facebook page has 448 followers.

There is also a candidate who moved into Ward 4 fairly recently, former Planning Commissioner Beatriz Mendoza. Her Facebook page has 538 followers.

Mendoza has even less followers than the relatively unknown businessman Brandon Sisco, who is also running for Ward 4. His Facebook page has 125 followers.

There is one more candidate in the Ward 4 race – Bishop Gale Oliver Jr., who also heads up a church in town. His Facebook page has 322 followers.

Who will win in Santa Ana’s Ward 4 Special Election this November?

Posted on August 18, 2019 by Editor Posted in 2019 Elections, Beatriz Mendoza, Brandon Sisco, Civic Affairs, David Benavides, Democratic Party, Elections, Gale Oliver Jr., Jennifer Oliva, Manuel Escamilla, Phil Bacerra, Politics, Roman Reyna, Santa Ana Leave a comment

All of the candidates for Santa Ana’s Ward 4 are Democrats except for Bishop Gale Oliver Jr., who is an independent. Special Elections are generally low turnout affairs. Democrats in Santa Ana are infamous for not voting in such elections. So who has the edge this time around?

There are no Republicans in this race. That figures as only 22.6% of Santa Ana’s voters are Republicans. They have no pull in our city any more.

But the Democrats don’t quite have total control yet either as only 53.4% of the voters are from the blue party. The rest of the voters, 20.6%, are Decline to State or third party voters.

So if the Democrats don’t bother to vote the Independent and GOP voters could prevail – if they get behind one candidate.

The race for Ward 4 however is a crowded affair. Here is how the candidates break down:

Phil Bacerra – While he is a Democrat he is a moderate and he has a lot of support from Republican voters in Santa Ana including several former City Council Members. He is a former Santa Ana Planning Commissioner who barely lost to Reyna last time around. Check out his website here.
Beatriz Mendoza – She is a liberal Democrat who was once a staffer to U.S. Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Mendoza has previously run for the SAUSD School Board. Her campaign has already goofed on Facebook – referring to former City Councilman David Benavides as the interim Ward 5 Council Member. He is not serving in that role!
Brandon Sisco – Another Democrat. I have no idea why he is running. Perhaps this is a vanity campaign? His website claims that at 15 assisted the FBI. He owns a company called Android Genius. Their Yelp reviews are very entertaining! Another website claims he is a real estate developer.
Bishop Oliver Gale, Jr. – He is an independent. He heads up the Greater Light Family Church, located at 1600 W. 3rd St. in Santa Ana. Council Member Ceci Iglesias has endorsed him.
Manuel Escamilla – He is a liberal Democrat. That means he and Mendoza will be fighting over the same voters! And those are precisely the voters who don’t show up in Special Elections. I can’t believe that he quit the City of Santa Ana’s Planning Department in order to run for Ward 4. Bad move I think.
Jennifer Oliva – She is an Arts and Culture Commissioner in Santa Ana. She was appointed by Councilman David Penaloza. During her interview with the City Council, when they were trying to figure out who to replace Reyna with, she talked a lot about the youth and education.

I expect that Mendoza and Escamilla are going to split the liberal votes – hurting both of them. Mendoza and Oliva will also split many of the woman votes. Mendoza also appears to be the candidate favored by the pro-Reyna faction. I don’t think it is a positive thing to be associated in any way with Reyna, who may still end up getting prosecuted by the OCDA for his campaign shenanigans.

Councilwoman Ceci Iglesias believes that Bishop Gale Jr. will prevail because of the vote splits. However the voters don’t know who he is so that seems like a tall order. Iglesias does run a great ground game however. She will also promote Gale Jr. at area churches. That is how she got elected to the City Council in the last election. She too benefited from a vote split when her two Democratic opponents knocked each other out.

Bacerra however has several huge advantages:

He got over 23,000 votes last November! If the same voters turnout for him again the race is over.
His opponent in the 2018 election, Roman Reyna, got over 29,000 votes but those will now be split among several opponents.
Bacerra already has campaign signs up in town and he is advertising here on this blog. His opponents? Asleep at the wheel.
He is immensely popular in north Santa Ana as he has taken a stand against an apartment development that has upset many residents.

Yes it is true that Bacerra was attacked last year by an ex-girlfriend who alleged that he abused her but she has since been generally discredited and the FPPC is investigating who funded the attack video she was featured in. On a personal note I knew them when they were dating and never saw him act rudely towards her. She is also allied with the most extreme liberals in Santa Ana. And it was fairly obvious that her attack was designed to help Bacerra’s opponent, Reyna.

Bacerra also has the support of the last African American City Council Member to hold office in Santa Ana – Alberta Christy, who was also a major figure in the OC GOP.

If I was a betting man I would say that Bacerra is going to win this race easily. And when the local Democrats endorse one of his opponents it will backfire as that party will only back a candidate who supports distribution of drug needles in our city. Reyna did. So will the next candidate the O.C. Democrats endorse. That won’t fly with most voters in our city.

Why would we support a candidate who wants to hand out drug needles to the addicted homeless mob in our city? The Democratic Party endorsement will as such be the kiss of death!

Six candidates have applied to replace Roman Reyna on the Santa Ana City Council

Posted on March 17, 2019 by Editor Posted in 2018 elections, Civic Affairs, Elections, Gale Oliver Jr., Jennifer Oliva, Jose Solorio, Ken Nguyen, Maricela Vallejo, Phil Bacerra, Phillip Ortiz Jr., Roman Reyna, Santa Ana, Vince Sarmiento 2 Comments

Six people applied to replace former Santa Ana City Councilman Roman Reyna by the deadline at noon Tuesday, March 12, according to the O.C. Register.

The candidates include:

Phil Bacerra (D), a former Santa Ana Planning Commissioner who sued Reyna after the November election on the grounds that Reyna screwed up his campaign paperwork and never should have been allowed on the ballot. Phil was right!
Kenneth Khanh Nguyen (No Party Preference – NPP), a Santa Ana Planning Commissioner
Jennifer Oliva (D), a Santa Ana Arts and Culture Commissioner
Gale Oliver, Jr. (No Party Preference – NPP), a Baptist bishop
Phillip Ortiz, Jr. (No Party Preference – NPP), an Internet installer
Maricela Vallejo (No Party Preference – NPP), a Santa Ana Personnel Board Member

Our position is that Reyna’s seat should go to Bacerra, who was cheated out of victory last year. To make matters worse, Bacerra was smeared by Reyna’s supporters in what was perhaps the ugliest campaign we have ever seen. The fair thing to do would be to appoint Bacerra. This is particularly true as he is one of only two Asian candidates being considered by the City Council.

Apparently Council Members Jose Solorio and Vince Sarmiento are favoring the other Asian candidate, Kenneth “Ken” Khang Nguyen, who was successfully sued by Novell for copyright infringement back in 1997, because of a software piracy scheme. Nguyen is an affable fellow but it is likely that he is favored because he will go along to get along – and Solorio allegedly wants a candidate who will do his bidding.

I have met Bishop Gale Oliver before. He is very engaging. He has his hands full with his congregation though. While the City Council job is a part-time position it actually turns out to be almost full time – as any of our current City Council Members can attest.

I don’t know Jennifer Oliva or Maricela Vallejo but they are, like Nguyen, both City Commissioners. And we certainly could use more women on our City Council as currently only one City Council Member, Ceci Iglesias, is a woman.

My guess is that the City Council will not be able to muster four votes for any of these candidates. It is likely that we are headed for a Special Election that will take place in November, at the same time as the upcoming SAUSD Special election.