As I have been predicting for some time, Santa Ana Mayor Pro Tem Claudia Alvarez is running for the Rancho Santiago Community College District’s Area 5, which includes (as per the OC Political blog):
- Fountain Valley north of Edinger Avenue
- Garden Grove south of Garden Grove Boulevard between Harbor Boulevard and Euclid Street
- Santa Ana north of 17th Street and west of Santiago Street
- Santa Ana between Euclid Street and the Santa Ana River
- Santa Ana north of Civic Center Drive between Bristol Street and Flower Street
McLoughlin and Chapel are of course toast. Area 5’s voters break down like this – 33% are Latino, 27% are Asian and presumably the balance are white (41%.) But Chapel and McLoughlin are going to split the white vote. That should put Alvarez in the catbird seat.
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Of course there is more to it than race. The Republican bloggers at the OC Political blog agreed that Alvarez has a distinct advantage, based on these factors:
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- City Councilmembers’ general ability to unseat school board members
- The pro-incumbent vote is split between Chapel and McLoughlin
- She is the sole woman
- She is the sole Latina
- She has higher name ID, due to her Council seat and her 2006 bid for Assembly (she lost the primary to Jose Solorio, who incidentally is now running for RSCCD Trustee Area 1)
- She has the largest warchest
Alvarez has always won by huge margins, as a City Council candidate. I have no doubt that she will win and do so easily in November, much to her detractors’ chagrin. She certainly has my vote. McLoughlin disappointed me when he opposed the completion of the Santa Ana Creek bike trail, which runs by his neighborhood. There should be no room for NIMBY’s on the RSCCD Board.
As for Chapel, he is a far-left tax and spender. No thanks.