The race for California’s 68th Assembly District appears settled, with Jessie Lopez defeating David Penaloza by a margin of 55,426 votes to 51,300 votes, or 51.93% to 48.07%. The result sends one of Orange County’s most outspoken progressive elected officials to Sacramento and raises important questions about the future direction of Democratic politics in central Orange County.

The contest was notable because it pitted two Democrats with very different visions for the district. Lopez ran as a progressive activist emphasizing renter protections, labor issues, environmental justice, immigrant rights, healthcare expansion, and police accountability. David Penaloza, meanwhile, campaigned as a more moderate Democrat focused on public safety, housing production, infrastructure improvements, economic development, and cost-of-living concerns.

What Sacramento May Get From Jessie Lopez

While no one can know with certainty how a newly elected legislator will vote once in office, Lopez’s public record, campaign platform, endorsements, and positions offer clues regarding what voters may expect.

Lopez has consistently aligned herself with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party and has earned support from organized labor and progressive advocacy groups. Her campaign focused heavily on environmental issues, renter protections, social programs, immigrant rights, and opposition to certain law enforcement technologies.

As a result, many observers expect Lopez may:

• Support stronger environmental regulations and climate mandates.
• Back labor-backed legislation affecting employers and workers.
• Support expanded tenant protections and housing assistance programs.
• Oppose efforts to expand law enforcement surveillance technologies.
• Support legislation favored by progressive advocacy organizations.
• Side with Sacramento’s progressive caucus on social and economic issues.

Supporters will view these priorities as efforts to protect vulnerable residents and advance environmental goals. Critics, however, may worry that additional regulations could increase costs for businesses, motorists, housing providers, and consumers already struggling with California’s high cost of living.

Given her policy positions, many political observers expect Lopez to support California’s continued push toward aggressive climate policies. Critics argue such policies often result in higher fuel, utility, and transportation costs, while supporters contend they are necessary to meet the state’s long-term environmental objectives.

What Voters Passed On

Had Penaloza won, Sacramento would likely have gained one of Orange County’s remaining moderate Democratic voices.

Throughout the campaign, Penaloza emphasized pragmatic governance, economic development, housing production, infrastructure improvements, and support for public safety. He highlighted accomplishments involving new housing projects, investments in public works, improved emergency response times, and efforts to strengthen local services.

Supporters viewed Penaloza as a Democrat more willing to work with business leaders, builders, public safety organizations, and community stakeholders outside the progressive movement. His election may have added another centrist voice to a Legislature that has increasingly moved left in recent years.

Instead, voters chose a candidate whose political support comes primarily from labor unions, progressive activists, and organizations seeking more aggressive policy changes in Sacramento.

Another Tough Night for Moderate Democrats

The election results may also reinforce a growing perception that moderate Democrats are struggling to gain traction in central Orange County.

Penaloza’s loss follows the earlier defeat of his wife, Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, in her campaign for the Orange County Board of Supervisors against Vicente Sarmiento. For many political observers, the combined losses illustrate the difficulties faced by candidates who attempt to occupy the political center in an area where progressive organizations and labor-backed campaigns continue to gain influence.

In both races, candidates seen as more moderate lost to opponents backed by well-organized progressive coalitions. Whether this trend continues in future election cycles remains to be seen, but the results suggest that central Orange County’s Democratic electorate may be becoming increasingly comfortable with candidates positioned to the left of the party’s traditional center.

Are OC’s Moderate Democrats Becoming Extinct?

That question would have sounded far-fetched a decade ago, when Orange County Democrats frequently nominated candidates who emphasized fiscal restraint, public safety, and business-friendly policies.

Today, however, the political landscape looks much different.

The victory of Lopez over Penaloza will likely fuel debate over whether moderate Democrats are becoming an endangered species in cities such as Santa Ana and portions of central Orange County.

Several of the region’s most successful Democratic politicians now emerge from labor-backed and progressive political networks. Candidates associated with public safety organizations, business interests, and centrist Democratic coalitions have increasingly found themselves on the defensive.

The success of progressive candidates does not necessarily mean moderates have disappeared. But this election provides additional evidence that the center of gravity within central Orange County Democratic politics has moved noticeably leftward.

Following the Money

Campaign finance reports showed that both candidates attracted substantial financial support.

Penaloza actually raised more money directly into his campaign committee than Lopez, reportedly bringing in roughly $846,000 compared to approximately $538,000 for Lopez. Independent expenditure committees and outside groups, however, poured significant additional resources into the race. Labor-backed organizations and progressive allies heavily supported Lopez, while business-oriented, technology, energy, and development interests largely lined up behind Penaloza.

Lopez benefited from support associated with organized labor groups and progressive organizations that share her policy priorities on workers’ rights, environmental issues, healthcare, housing, and social programs. As with any newly elected lawmaker, voters will be watching closely to see whether those relationships influence her legislative priorities once she arrives in Sacramento.

A Significant Career Transition as Lopez Finally Lands a Full Time Job

The Assembly victory also marks a major professional transition for Lopez.

For years, Lopez has worked in part-time political and public-service roles, including service on the Santa Ana City Council and employment in the office of Vicente Sarmiento. The Assembly will place her in her first statewide elected office and provide an opportunity to shape legislation affecting nearly 40 million Californians.

The move from local government to the State Assembly is significant. Municipal officials often focus on neighborhood concerns, while Assembly members must navigate statewide policy debates involving infrastructure, public safety, energy, education, healthcare, housing, and California’s multibillion-dollar budget.

Whether Lopez ultimately becomes known as a progressive firebrand or a coalition-builder willing to work across ideological lines remains to be seen.

What is already clear is that voters in the 68th Assembly District rejected a more moderate Democratic alternative and instead elevated one of Orange County’s most progressive elected officials to Sacramento. For supporters, that victory represents progress. For critics, it raises concerns about where California’s policies may head next. Either way, the outcome is likely to influence Orange County politics for years to come.

David Penaloza Says Thanks as He Admits Defeat

Penaloza addressed his loss today in a Facebook post:

What an incredible ride these last two years have been. As ballots continue to be counted, it’s clear that we won’t be pulling through in this race for State Assembly. And while this isn’t the outcome we hoped for, my heart is full. To the thousands of residents across Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Orange who believed in me, supported our campaign, opened their doors, shared their stories, and trusted me with their hopes for a better future, THANK YOU. This campaign was never about me. It was about the families struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living. It was about making homeownership possible again. It was about ensuring young families don’t have to choose between childcare and saving up for their first home. It was about investing in our public schools, closing the gaps in our healthcare system, and protecting our communities from the unconstitutional attacks coming from our federal government.

This is the community that welcomed my Mexican immigrant parents when they arrived in this country with very little, searching for safety, opportunity, and a better life. La calle cuatro in Santa Ana and neighborhoods in central Anaheim gave my family a place to belong that was reminiscent of home. They gave me a childhood, an education, and eventually the opportunity to serve the community that raised me.

One of the most emotional moments of my life was seeing my name on the ballot for the California State Legislature. But even more fulfilling was watching my mom vote for her son. To think that a young woman in her twenties could leave everything she knew behind, endure unimaginable hardship and loss through the death of my dad, and decades later vote for her own son to represent her community at the state level. If that isn’t the American Dream, I don’t know what is.

Over the last year, an unprecedented amount of outside money poured into our district. Millions of dollars from competing interests and independent expenditure committees, spending that NEITHER candidate controlled, unfortunately overshadowed and drowned what this campaign was always about. From billionaires hiding behind names like ‘Working Families Party’ and ‘Smart Justice CA’ to PACs backed by labor unions, oil, utility, and technology interests, voters were inundated with advertisements, lies, and competing narratives. I was accused of supporting data centers, despite repeatedly calling for a ban on them. I was accused of supporting ICE, despite helping lead Santa Ana’s legal challenge against the Trump administration over its unconstitutional immigration enforcement actions, the first city in the county to do so. And somehow, depending on which voter received the mailer, I was either too moderate or a Democratic Socialist insider. Lol.

I share this not out of bitterness, but because I believe our communities deserve the truth. I have always believed that public service is about what you actually do when the cameras are off, not just what you say when they’re on. When our community was facing immigration raids in June of 2025, I was also a dad working a full-time job outside of city council, with a newborn baby and a 13-month-old at home. I had just come back from paternity leave and did not have the luxury or ability to leave work early, but as records have shown, I was working closely day and night with our city staff to pursue meaningful legal action, accountability, and answers, to protect our residents from ICE, the national guard, and the Trump administration. I say all this so that it hopefully sheds some light and provides context as to why I was not outside the federal building at 3 pm on a Monday.

But elections are about choices, and I respect our democracy and the choice our community has made. I am proud of the positive campaign we ran, the issues we elevated, and the people who stood alongside us.

I had not wanted to say anything until I personally connected with and spoke to my opponent to concede. I have called Assemblywoman-elect Jessie Lopez to congratulate her on her victory. Alongside the incredible victories we’re seeing across our country, from the central valley to Texas and Georgia, our community has also made history right here at home by electing the first woman to represent Central Orange County in the State Assembly. That is an incredible accomplishment, and something we should all be proud of. I genuinely wish her success as she takes on this important responsibility. I am rooting for her, because her success in the legislature means more state resources for our community. Our communities deserve nothing less and I am confident she will put her heart into everything she brings forth.

And as for me? I’m going to be just fine. One thing I’ve struggled with throughout this campaign is being away from my two kids. Every overnight trip and every missed bedtime, weighed on me more than I expected it would. My little Penny and Lucas are my entire heart, and their beautiful souls bring me a kind of peace and happiness I never knew existed. The thought of spending several days every week away from them, was something I had been wrestling with. So while this chapter may be ending differently than we had planned, I can’t help but feel incredibly blessed knowing that I get to spend more of these precious years right here at home, watching them grow. To my beautiful wife, Kim. I don’t even know where to begin. You have been my rock, my biggest supporter, my sounding board, and the most incredible partner anyone could ever ask for. You believed in me through it all, and you carried so much of the weight of this campaign while being the best mom. I could never have done any of this without you. I love you more than words could ever express. Thank you for giving me the most beautiful family and the greatest support system a man could ever dream of.

To Amy, my incredible team of ONE who somehow managed to do the work of an entire campaign staff, THANK YOU! I genuinely don’t know how you did it all, but you did, and I will forever be grateful for your dedication, loyalty, and belief in me. To every donor and volunteer who knocked on doors, made calls, sent texts, delivered yard signs, walked neighborhoods, hosted events, and gave up your time to help us, you are all heaven sent. And to Overland Strategies, THANK YOU, for everything you poured into this race. To our supporters, friends, family, and everyone who was part of this journey, please know that your belief in me is something I will carry for the rest of my life. To Assemblymember Avelino Valencia, thank you for your trust in me, your support, and most importantly your friendship. Nearly two years ago, we embarked on this journey not knowing where it would take us. We gave it everything we had, and although we didn’t cross the finish line the way we hoped, I am humbled by all the support we received. Thank you, AD68, for giving this kid from Santa Ana the opportunity of a lifetime.