Prop. 50 has turned into a referendum on Trump

California’s Proposition 50 has quickly evolved into a referendum on President Donald Trump, both in substance and in political messaging.

Proposition 50, officially titled the Election Rigging Response Act, proposes a temporary redrawing of California’s congressional districts to counter Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas and other states. The goal is to gain five additional Democratic seats in the U.S. House of Representatives for the 2026–2030 elections.

Why it’s seen as a referendum on Trump:

Gov. Gavin Newsom and former President Barack Obama have framed Prop. 50 as a direct response to Trump’s influence over redistricting in GOP-led states like Texas.

Newsom has called it a “code red for our democracy,” warning that Trump’s efforts could “wreck this country”.

Trump, meanwhile, has opposed early and mail-in voting in the Prop. 50 election, repeating ridiculous claims of election fraud and calling the measure dishonest.

The DOJ under Trump is sending election monitors to California, which state officials like Attorney General Rob Bonta say could intimidate voters, especially immigrants.

Voter sentiment:

Many voters — both liberal and conservative — are reportedly frustrated with the politicization of the redistricting process and see Prop. 50 as a battleground between Newsom and Trump.

The measure has become one of the most expensive ballot fights in California history, with over $200 million raised between both sides.

It now looks like Proposition 50 is on track to win big in California’s upcoming special election.

Key Polling Highlights:

Emerson College Poll (Oct. 20–21):

• 57% of likely voters support Prop. 50
• 37% oppose
• 6% undecided
• Support jumps to 60% when undecided voters are included

CBS News/YouGov Poll:

• 62% of likely voters say they’ll vote “Yes”
• Support is driven by opposition to Donald Trump and national Republicans
• 75% of “Yes” voters say they’re voting to oppose Trump

Demographic Shifts:

• Support among Black voters rose from 45% to 71% in one month
• Latino and Democratic voters remain strongly supportive
• Independent voters are split but leaning toward “Yes”

Voter Sentiment:

• Many Californians view Prop. 50 as a national issue, not just a state one.
• The measure is seen as a counterstrike against Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and other states.
• Even voters who think Prop. 50 might cost the state money are still voting “Yes”.

Unless there’s a major shift in turnout or late-breaking controversy, Prop. 50 is likely to pass comfortably, reshaping California’s congressional map and potentially flipping five Republican-held seats to Democrats.

Governor Newsom may however be wasting his time and money as there are a number of Republican-led states that are now redistricting or considering redistricting to eliminate Democratic House seats:

Already Redistricted:

• Texas – Passed a map expected to flip up to 5 Democratic seats.
• Missouri – Approved a map targeting Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s district.
• North Carolina – Proposed a map that could flip Rep. Don Davis’s seat.

In Progress or Likely to Redistrict:

• Florida – GOP may target 3 Democratic seats in South Florida.
• Indiana – Preparing for a redistricting session, possibly in November.
• Ohio – Required to redraw maps due to lack of bipartisan support in 2022.
• Utah – Passed a revised map; awaiting court approval.
• Louisiana – Awaiting a Supreme Court ruling on racial gerrymandering.
• Kansas – Under pressure from national GOP and Trump allies to redraw maps.

Democratic Countermoves:

• California – Prop. 50 aims to flip 5 GOP-held seats to Democrats.
• Virginia – Democrats pushing for a constitutional amendment to allow redistricting.
• Illinois, Maryland, New York – Democratic governors considering redistricting to counter GOP gains

The Trump majority Supreme Court could settle this

Moreover the U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to significantly weaken — or potentially reverse — the requirement for creating majority-Black congressional districts under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

The case Louisiana v. Callais is at the center of this issue. It challenges the constitutionality of Louisiana’s 2024 congressional map, which added a second majority-Black district after a lower court found the original map violated the Voting Rights Act.

During oral arguments on October 15, 2025, the Court’s conservative majority signaled skepticism about race-based redistricting:

• Justice Brett Kavanaugh emphasized that race-based remedies should not be “indefinite” and must have an “end point.”
• Chief Justice John Roberts suggested the Court’s 2023 decision upholding Section 2 in Alabama was narrowly focused and may not apply to Louisiana.
• Justice Amy Coney Barrett and others questioned whether race should be used at all in drawing districts, even to remedy past discrimination.
• Louisiana’s Solicitor General argued that using race to draw districts amounts to unconstitutional “racial balancing.”

What could happen:

• The Court may strike down Louisiana’s second Black-majority district, ruling that it relied too heavily on race.
• A broader ruling could gut Section 2, removing the legal basis for requiring majority-minority districts nationwide.
• This would give red states more freedom to redraw maps without considering racial representation — potentially eliminating dozens of Democratic-leaning districts.

Political Impact

A ruling against Section 2 could allow GOP-led legislatures to redistrict without regard to minority voting strength, especially in the South. Analysts estimate this could result in up to 27 additional safe Republican seats in the House.

A decision is expected by June 2026, but if the Court rules early, it could affect the 2026 midterm elections.

Liberal Justices pave the way for the Trump majority U.S. Supreme Court

It is worth noting that if liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg had retired during President Barack Obama’s term, it’s very likely that Donald Trump would not have achieved a conservative majority on the Supreme Court — at least not as quickly or decisively.

There has also been significant debate over whether liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor should have retired during President Biden’s administration, especially before the 2024 election. Sotomayor is 70 years old and has lived with Type 1 diabetes most of her life. Some commentators have worried about her ability to remain on the bench for another 4–8 years under a conservative Trump administration. If she dies during Trump’s second term he will almost certainly replace her with another conservative justice.

• Yes on 50
• No on 50