Benavides finally holding a fundraiser for his mayoral campaign

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• Speaking of upcoming events. My neighbors are Republicans and got invited to a presinct walk for GOP candidates Jerry Haydon for Congress against Loretta Sanchez, Cecilia Iglecias for school board, and Charles Hart for city council at their headquarters in North Santa Ana. What about Republican Mayoral candidate George Collins? Wasn't he top GOP vote getter for Mayor last time he ran? Isn't he the GOP endorsed candidate for Mayor? Is it possible that DEMOCRAT David Benavides talked Hart into NOT supporting Collins? I know they have a lot of the same supporters. It's all so confusing.

• Let's put Benavides infidelity aside for a minute and look at what he needs to do to win:

  2004 Presidental Election Year (47,961 voters):

  Pulido - 383364 80.6%
  Fiala - 9327 19.4% (this was Stan's BEST SHOWING)

  2006 Non-Presidential Election Year (33,691 voters):

  Pulido - 23170 68.8%
  Gordon - 8262 24.5%
  Fiala - 2259 6.7%

  2008 Presidential Election Year (55,230 voters):

  Pulido - 30352 55.0%
  Martinez - 16199 29.3%
  Collins - 7610 13.8%
  Fiala - 1069 1.9%

  2010 Non-Presidential Election Year (43,112 voters)

  Pulido - 21588 49.5%
  Azmueca- 11689 26.8%
  Hart- 4216 9.7%
  Collins - 3280 8.8%
  Alvarado - 2339 5.4%

  So there you have some recent historical data from the OC ROV. What does this mean?

  First, 2012 IS an election year, so turnout should be higher (50K?).

  Second, Similar two the past two races (2008 & 2010) you have vote vampires (although I don't think any have name recognition or party affiliation), so that will be inconsequential, most likely.

  Next, consider name recognition. The biggest Pulido opponent in vote getting was Michelle Martinez in 2008, she had EXCELLENT NAME RECOGNITION. but, got just over half the amount of votes Pulido did. Even if she got EVERY other vote from Collins and Stan, she still faced a ten point drubbing.

  Lastly, I'll mention money. Pulido was much more well positioned tahn ANY of the previous canidates. That remains to be seen in 2012. With the Public unions supporting Benavides, they could give him a boost in the $$$$ department, but he better get going because election day is 47 days away and your not going to win this on signs and mail alone. In fact, time may be his biggest enemy.

  So there is some math to chew on for a while. Because if your talking 50,000 voters this year, it's going to be an up hill battle for ANY challenger to get to the 30
  % needed to win.

  I think the anwser is 2014. Let the reputation recover, build some name recognition, stockpile some cash and maybe you have a competitive race, but this year is a challenge mathmatically.

• All challengers mentioned had none of the following THAT PULIDO HAD DURING THOSE ELECTIONS:

  -MAJORITY COUNCIL SUPPORT
  -Firemen's union endorsement
  -Policeman's association endorsement
  -Labor endorsement
  -OC Democratic Committee endorsement
  -Was part of the council majority
  -Controlled the council majority

  Pulido enjoyed these because during those times he controlled the council majority. Power is with the council majority not with the Mayor's office.

  The endorsements and PAC money go with the power. Money from fundraisers is irrelevant. Pulido's money came from the PACS, not from fundraisers. He did not have them.

  The power......council majority is with Benavides and so the above mentioned endorsement are now with Benavides.

  All of the the above which were with Pulido for 18 years now do not endorse Pulido.

  They now endorses Benavides.

  SO.......BENAVIDES IS IN GOOD SHAPE!!!!!!!!

• Someone ask Julio how well he did with all his endorsements. Oh wait a minute. He didn't do well at all. I think the Dentist is still trying to convince himself that BeNoVida (Benavides) actually has a chance to win.

  I don't think so. What does the Dentist care anyway? He doesn't live here. Lomeli "Orin Scrivello" should consider getting involved in his own City of Orange politics and share his boring,long winded nonsense with Cavecche, Bilodeau, Smith, Dumitru and Whitaker.

  Orin (Lomeli) reads way too much like Nativo Lopez. The people of Santa Ana are not stupid and we can think for ourselves. We don't need another nut like Nativo Lopez trying to run our City.

  Pulido will win again and he locked in more votes with his performance Saturday night. Pulido has endeared himself with the community and that is why we vote for him.

  • Good catch. Benavides' campaign is essentially being run by longtime Nativo Lopez ally John Palacio. The rotten fruit doesn't fall far from the tree!

• I think the endorsements are overrated.

  The mojority of Santa Ana voters (save the political junkies/flunkies) and the elderly don't know, nor care.

  Look at that guys accounting 55,000 people vote in a city of 400,000. that's about an 1/8 of the population.
  One must assume of that 1/8 some read the paper. That = PULIDO.

  Unless they OCFA and the disbanded SAFFA association breakout the fire truck with Vincente Fernedez (Rob Richardson don't cut it no more)NOBODY cares.

  The endorsement process with the promise of a check is what matters. and if that's the case, It's a NO vote for David.

  Lomeri doesn't realize those people david has endorsing him ARE THE ENEMY! The city is not for sale like some cheap home loan.

  The guy should thank his lucky Estrella's that he doesn't have REALTOR next to his name!

  • Well said. The money matters, not the endorsements. And with that the name I.D. and the ballot designation. Pulido has Benavides beat on all counts.

    Thanks for the reminder about Benavides being a realtor. I will have to write a post about that given that our city has led the county in foreclosures.

    • Where doe Pulido fall on the ballot?

      I think DEAD LAST, Which will be a great benefit as voters scan over unfamiliar names settling on the last.

      This is not a water district election, Subconciously people will pay attention cruise right over the unfamiliar names and land on Pulido. A starnge twist of luck for the mayor.

      It will be especially painful for Benavides and the unions if he is beaten handily, they will again wonder what their riches are buying?

      Then again, maybe the unions drop a cool million against Pulido and win. Then we know EXACTLY what we have.

• Fascinating posting Pedroza. Very entertaining.

• I look like DA SH^T w/ that PHAT B&^ch!

  One ride on the Harley and we be in Bustamonteville.

  She be lovin' the BIG BAD BEN!

  Any hot bunnies wanna hit with me come to the FUN RAISER! next week, the "WIFE" will be at her apartment grading papers and feeding my kid Kraft Mac-n-Cheese.

  The SAPOA be feedin' us da sh&t at da chapter.

  • Man times are so hard I can't even afford Kraft Mac and Cheese any more.

• Brian, you should get a gig a s arealator, flipping houses in South Santa Ana!

  Benavides and his housing aithority "partner" claim to do well. Between that and his low interest loan, that his wife got him, bt doesn't live there, is also a sweet deal.

  I can only imagine how he got the money for a new Harley?????Maybe he skimmed a little from the NEWSONG real Estate dealings.

  SCUMBAG.