Why did Santa Ana voters reelect the most anti-police City Council in Orange County?

The ballots in the Nov. 5 General Election appear to all be counted now. The bad news for Santa Ana residents is that the anti-police City Council Members who were up for releection, including Thai Viet Phan in Ward 1, Jessie Lopez in Ward 3 and Johnathan Ryan Hernandez in Ward 5 appear to have won.

The re-election of these Council Members seems counter to the general mood of California voters, who overwhelmingly approved Prop. 36 in the same election. Prop. 36 was an anti-crime measure targeting thieves and drug abusers. Liberal District Attorneys were also ousted in Los Angeles and in Oakland.

So why did Santa Ana’s anti-police City Council Members survive this election?

The Power of Incumbency

Two of this year’s Santa Ana City Council challengers, Mario Alvarado in Ward 5 and Julie Tran in Ward 1, had never run for office before this election. One of them, Jeffrey Katz in Ward 3, ran four years ago but appears to have lost yet again.

The Santa Ana City Council incumbents, Phan, Lopez and Hernandez, had four years to get to know the community since they were first elected. All three of them used that time effectively, appearing at many public events and using their elected offices to boost their name I.D.

Failed police union recall made Lopez even stronger

Lopez also prevailed last year when the Santa Ana Police Association (SAPOA), the powerful union that represents our police officers, tried and failed to recall her form office. That failed recall only made her more well known and most definitely contributed to her Nov. 5 victory.

Big oops by the police union in Ward 1

SAPOA also blew it in this election when they opted not to support Tran against Phan in Ward 1. Tran came tantalizingly close to beating Phan, losing by only 666 votes. Had SAPOA backed Tran she likely would have won. Instead we are stuck for for more years with the overly woke Phan, who often votes against attempts to improve criminal justice in Santa Ana.

Changing demographics in Ward 3

Katz barely lost to Lopez, by a marin of only 318 votes. It is very possible that one of the candidates who ran for Ward 3 four years ago, Mark McLoughlin, told his backers not to vote for Katz this year. McLoughlin got over 5,000 votes in the Ward 3 election four years ago, Lopez got 6,786 votes and Katz got 4,116 votes. This year Lopez got 8,742 votes. Where did the rest of the votes go?

One theory is that a lot of voters left Ward 3 over the past four years. The home owners in this ward are aging – many died or moved prior to this year’s election. The families who move or inherit homes are not selling the homes for the most part. They are renting them. This means there has been a net increase in renters in Ward 3 – which played right into Lopez’ hands as she is a major proponent of rent control.

Ward 3 has also gotten younger and more Hispanic as the older white residents have either died or moved away. That too benefited Lopez, who spent a lot of her campaign budget on social media ads while Katz spent a small fortune on political signs. Katz bet on older votes and lost!

Rent control boost?

There was a rent control measure on the Santa Ana Nov. 5 ballot too, Measure CC. It passed by over 12,000 votes. Lopez, Phan and Hernandez all backed Measure CC. This may have given them a few more votes in their tight reelection campaigns.

Democratic Party edge?

Lopez, Phan and Hernandez were all endorsed by the Democratic Party of Orange County. Over 68,000 of the voters in Santa Ana are registered Democrats. There are just over 27,000 Republicans and just over 32,000 voters who have no party preference. About 7,000 voters are registered members of third parties.

No doubt Santa Ana’s City Council incumbents got help from their political party. They also got help from local Congressman Lou Correa, who inexplicably endorsed them despite their anti-police leanings.

Democrats definitely turned out in this election as Vice President Kamala Harris won Orange County by just over two percentage points over former President Donald Trump, who prevailed nationally.

It does seem that liberal voters were engaged in this election as two educational bond measures also passed in Santa Ana – Measure G (Rancho Santiago Community College District) and Measure I (SAUSD School District). Conservatives generally don’t vote for bond measures as they raise our property taxes.

The only good news for those who support law enforcement in Santa Ana is that Mayor Valerie Amecua trounced her woke opponent, Ben Vazquez, by over 14,000 votes. Vazquez will have to run for reelection in his Ward in two years.

Labor labored for the anti-police Santa Ana City Council incumbents

Lopez, Phan and Hernandez were all endorsed by Unite Here’s Local 11, which represents hospitality workers. They were also endorsed by the UFCW, Local 324, which represents workers employed in the Food, Dental, Financial, Health Care, Optometry, Packinghouse, Processing, Retail Drug, Cannabis, and Merchandise industries throughout Orange County. They were also endorsed by Orange County’s union carpenters. Lopez and Hernandez had the backing of the SEIU too.

Labor members tend to be very active in General Elections. They often walk precincts for their endorsed candidates and they send out lists of endorsed candidates to their members. Labor definitely came through this year for Lopez, Phan and Hernandez.

The only union of any note that came out against Lopez and Hernandez was of course SAPOA. As noted above they took a pass on Phan, which they will likely come to regret.

Will Lopez, Phan and Hernandez moderate their views after their tight reelections?

While Santa Ana’s anti-police City Council incumbents won again this year they did not win handily. They were each in tough races. Will this compel them to moderate their views in the next four years? Time will tell.

Most likely Lopez, Phan and Hernandez will continue to be woke and vote against law enforcement.

Santa Ana will keep getting younger in the next four years and the older white residents will keep dying and/or moving away. This means it will get even tougher to knock out the anti-police City Council Members in the next General Election.